Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis (Technical by Gregory F. Treverton

By Gregory F. Treverton

This record assesses intelligence research around the major U.S. intelligence organisations and makes a few innovations, a few of which parallel projects that experience all started within the wake of the December 2004 laws, for example, create a Deputy Director of nationwide Intelligence as a focus for research, determine a countrywide Intelligence collage, construct an extended time period research Unit on the nationwide Intelligence Council, and shape an Open resource heart for making extra inventive use of open-source fabrics.

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They interact. It will also need, and need to communicate, a more explicit understanding of the limits of analysis under varying conditions and circumstances. Consumers often want definitive answers—point predictions—but intelligence can rarely provide them and should seldom pretend to try. Although analysts and their managers work in the current glare of public concern over their craft, they have specific concerns about that craft as well. Drawn from more than several dozen discussions and interviews with working analysts and managers, the issues raised below represent those of most concern.

Not only does the CIA house the Intelligence Technology Innovation Center (ITIC), but In-Q-Tel and its in-house CIA counterpart, the In-Q-Tel Interface Center (QIC), are effectively mapping the needs of the CIA to new technology opportunities. In 2006, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) was created to provide a focal point for technology development in the Intelligence Community, subsuming both ITIC and the Advanced Research and Development Activity (ARDA). , “cratology”) Other more standard tools for “bookkeeping” Uniue imagery interpretation skills Data-mining and pattern recognition Human analysis skills Global analysis tradecraft Tradecraft experience Traffic analysis HUMINT interpretation All-source fusion analysis Integrated analysis Military capabilities Systems, analysis skills Campaign analysis Economic capabilities Political intentions Activity analysis Standard economic modeling Technical and operational insight and syehtsis for military problems System performance models Political and economic insight for other issues Network analysis Horizontal integration Complex network simulation Interactive research tools willing to invest the time and effort necessary to learn to use them.

The other issue is whether there will be capacity in the civilian sector. Our interviews, especially those at the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, suggested that the potential contractor base has shrunk significantly, so relying on it may not be a practical option in the future. If intelligence agencies must then do this kind of analysis in-house, even acquiring and learning how to use the standard analytical models will require a substantial investment in manpower. In other areas, the problems may be more tractable for the Intelligence Community.

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